Cash Flow Forecasting
- Build a Forecasting ProcessA disciplined forecasting cadence lets you anticipate problems weeks or months before they become crises.
- Maintain a short-term (13-week rolling) cash forecast updated weekly
- Build quarterly and annual projections using historical actuals, sales forecasts, and headcount plans
- Reconcile your cash forecast to your financial model every month so both stay accurate
- Update forecasts promptly when business conditions change โ stale forecasts are worse than none
- Run Sensitivity AnalysisModeling a range of scenarios is the difference between being surprised by a cash shortfall and having a plan ready when one emerges.
- Model base, upside, and downside cases with clearly documented assumptions for each
- Identify the key variables that most affect cash: revenue timing, hiring pace, and major vendor payments
- Determine at what point in the downside scenario you'd need to raise additional capital or cut costs
- Review scenario outputs with the leadership team quarterly and after any major business event
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Monitoring Cash Flow
- Establish Key Cash Flow KPIsReal-time visibility into cash performance lets you catch deviations before they compound into larger problems.
- Track operating cash flow, free cash flow, and cash conversion cycle as your primary KPIs
- Build a cash dashboard that updates daily or weekly from your accounting system
- Report ending cash balance and months of runway at every leadership team meeting
- Compare actuals to forecast every week and document the variance with an explanation
- Set Alerts and Review RegularlyProactive monitoring prevents surprises โ automated alerts and regular reviews ensure nothing falls through the cracks.
- Set threshold alerts for cash balance drops below a defined floor (e.g., less than 6 months runway)
- Flag accounts receivable aging weekly โ overdue invoices are a leading indicator of cash risk
- Conduct a formal monthly cash flow review with finance and the CEO
- Document recurring variances and update forecast assumptions to reflect them going forward
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Managing Working Capital
- Optimize Accounts ReceivableFast collections improve your cash position and reduce the risk of write-offs โ every day an invoice sits unpaid is cash you're not earning interest on.
- Invoice immediately upon contract signing or delivery โ never wait until the end of the month
- Set clear payment terms (Net 15 or Net 30) and follow up on overdue invoices at day 1 past due
- Offer ACH or credit card payment options to reduce friction and accelerate collections
- Negotiate annual prepay discounts with customers to pull cash forward
- Minimize Excess InventoryFor companies with physical goods or infrastructure spend, right-sizing inventory and vendor commitments frees up meaningful working capital.
- Apply just-in-time principles to minimize cash tied up in inventory or prepaid commitments
- Negotiate extended payment terms with suppliers to align outflows with inflows
- Audit vendor commitments quarterly and eliminate underutilized subscriptions and services
- Reassess working capital strategies as revenue grows โ what works at $1M ARR differs at $10M ARR
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